As per the title I'd like to discuss which type of markets reward the analysis of an underlying asset/event.
Meaning that there is a date of resolution and you don't have to watch out because "the market can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent"
What I came up with is sports betting on events happening within one month, betting on weather events as verified by NOAA weather stations (etc. rain, snow, wind, temperature).
Especially for sports betting, it's peculiar because in this case having consensus move against you is desirable as long as you guess the correct outcome at resolution, that's because bookmakers look at the flux of incoming bets to adjust the handicaps, plus you don't risk any margin call.